Table of Contents

  1. Introduction: AIACC: Climate Change and Conservation Planning
    1. What is AIACC?
    2. AIACC Course: Statement of Problem and Objectives
    3. What you will need to do the AIACC course?
    4. Internet Browsers
    5. Structure of the AIACC Course
  2. Chapter1: Evidence for climate change
    1. Slide 1: Introduction: the evidence for anthropogenic climate change
    2. Slide 2: Climate variation
    3. Slide 3 : Climate change
    4. Slide 4: What are we looking for?
    5. Slide 5: Sources of data - instrumental
    6. Slide 6: Temperature
    7. Slide 7: Palaeoclimate reconstruction from proxy data
    8. Slide 8: Palaeoclimatological time scale
    9. Slide 9: Proxy data sources: Ice cores
    10. Slide 10: Proxy data sources: Dendroclimatology
    11. Slide 11: Proxy data sources: Oceanic sediments
    12. Slide 12: Proxy data sources: Other
    13. Slide 13: The role of climate models
    14. Slide 14: Evidence for change
    15. Slide 15: Thermal indicators: Glacial melting
    16. Slide 16: Thermal indicators: Sea ice
    17. Slide 17: Thermal indicators: permafrost
    18. Slide 18: Thermal indicators: Sea level change
    19. Slide 19: Thermal indicators: Sea temperatures
    20. Slide 20: Is oceanic circulation changing?
    21. Slide 21: The greenhouse effect
    22. Slide 22: Climate change forcings
    23. Slide 23: Greenhouse gases: methane
    24. Slide 24: Greenhouse gases: nitrous oxide
    25. Slide 25: Greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide
    26. Slide 26: Greenhouse gases: others
    27. Slide 27: Aerosols
    28. Slide 28: Sulphates and nitrates
    29. Slide 29:Thermal indicators: global air temperature
    30. Slide 30: Changes in precipitation
    31. Slide 31: Climate change indicators: extreme weather
    32. Slide 32: Conclusions?
    33. Slide 33:Test yourself
    34. Slide 34: Links to other chapters
  3. Chapter 2: Global circulation models
    1. Slide 1: Global Circulation Models - the basis for climate change science
    2. Slide 2: Weather prediction
    3. Slide 3: NWP vs climate models
    4. Slide 4: NWP vs climate models (cont)
    5. Slide 5: How does the climate work?
    6. Slide 6: The atmosphere I: vertical structure
    7. Slide 7: The atmosphere II: energy budget
    8. Slide 8: The atmosphere III: Horizontal transfers
    9. Slide 9: The oceans
    10. Slide 10: Biosphere
    11. Slide 11: The geosphere
    12. Slide 12 : Different types of climate models
    13. Slide 13: Energy balance models
    14. Slide 14: Radiative-convective models
    15. Slide 15: Statistical-dynamical models
    16. Slide 16: Global circulation models
    17. Slide 17: Contemporary GCMs: an outline
    18. Slide 18: Climatic processes modelled in a GCM
    19. Slide 19: Flux adjustments
    20. Slide 20: How many GCMs are there?
    21. Slide 21: Use of GCMs
    22. Slide 22: Climatic forcing
    23. Slide 23: The effects of current radiative forcings
    24. Slide 24: IPCC future scenarios
    25. Slide 25: Development scenarios (cont).
    26. Slide 26: Future radiative forcings depend on response
    27. Slide 27: GCM model responses
    28. Slide 28: GCM outputs for 2100 (I)
    29. Slide 29: GCM outputs for 2100 (II)
    30. Slide 30: Linear and non linear responses
    31. Slide 31: Examples of non-linear changes
    32. Slide 32: Conclusion
    33. Slide 33: Test yourself
    34. Slide 34 Links to other chapters
  4. Chapter 4: Biodiversity responses to past changes in climate
    1. Slide 1: Biodiversity responses to past changes in climate
    2. Slide 2: Climate change is nothing new (Milankovitch theory)
    3. Slide 3: We live in an unusual, stable climate
    4. Slide 4: How do we know all this?
    5. Slide 5: Ice cores can tell us about prehistoric climate conditions
    6. Slide 6: Temperature change
    7. Slide 7 : Carbon dioxide
    8. Slide 8: How might these changes have affected biodiversity?
    9. Slide 9 : Migration
    10. Slide 10: Global features, Last Glacial Maximum (21-18 kbp)
    11. Slide 11: Residual plant populations in the Western Cape
    12. Slide 12: Historic pollen distributions
    13. Slide 13: Current biodiversity reveals the imprint of these changes
    14. Slide 14: Winter Rainfall
    15. Slide 15: Climate reconstruction - Temperature
    16. Slide 16: Climate reconstruction - Rainfall
    17. Slide 17: Climate space modeling, bioclimatic modeling, niche modelling
    18. Slide 18: Fynbos bioclimatic envelope
    19. Slide 19 : Succulent Karoo bioclimatic envelope
    20. Slide 20: The succulent Karoo biome advanced as temperature increased
    21. Slide 21: Pollen evidence?
    22. Slide 22: Centres of endemism and stable climate
    23. Slide 23: The Knersvlakte
    24. Slide 24: Karoo plants evolved incredibly fast
    25. Slide 25: Recent diversity is huge
    26. Slide 26: Mechanistic modelling
    27. Slide 27: Factors of a mechanistic model
    28. Slide 28 : DVM - dynamic vegetation model
    29. Slide 29: Sheffield DGVM
    30. Slide 30: Sheffield DGVM (Woodward)
    31. Slide 31: The role of fire in Savanna ecosystems
    32. Slide 32: Global distribution of fire in 1998
    33. Slide 33: CO2 crisis for C3, woody plants
    34. Slide 34: Low CO2 limits tree growth relatively more than herbaceous plant growth
    35. Slide 35: Under a fire regime, woody plants over a certain height may survive burning
    36. Slide 36: Simulated effects of CO2 on stem height (Mesic savanna)
    37. Slide 37: Implications and tests
    38. Slide 38: Modelled tree cover response to CO2
    39. Slide 39: Wonderkrater pollen Scott, L. (2002)
    40. Slide 40: Empirical experiments
    41. Slide 41: Low CO2 discriminates against woody plants
    42. Slide 42: High CO2 boosts productivity
    43. Slide 43: CO2 level controls, carbon investment in defenses
    44. Slide 44: Plant response
    45. Slide 45 : Conclusions
    46. Slide 46: Test yourself
    47. Slide 47: Links to other chapters
  5. Chapter 5: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change
    1. Slide 1: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change
    2. Slide 2: Introduction
    3. Slide 3: Adaptation I
    4. Slide 4: Adaptation II
    5. Slide 5: Bringing together conservation planning and climate research
    6. Slide 6: Formation of the current conservation network
    7. Slide 7: Colonial conservation
    8. Slide 8: Features of early conservation
    9. Slide 9: Where were reserves located
    10. Slide 10: Ecoregions of Southern Africa
    11. Slide 11: What constitutes conservation
    12. Slide 12: Mopane woodland
    13. Slide 13: Mopane is more than adequately conserved
    14. Slide 14: Hotspots of biodiversity in South Africa
    15. Slide 15: Southern African bioregions
    16. Slide 16 : Succulent Karoo
    17. Slide 17: Fynbos
    18. Slide 18: Reserves in the fynbos region
    19. Slide 19: Extent of conservation versus "need" for conservation. Two extremes
    20. Slide 20: Reserves in Madagascar
    21. Slide 21: Reserves in other SADC countries
    22. Slide 22: Conserved area in seven Southern Africa countries
    23. Slide 23: Number of parks in seven Southern Africa countries
    24. Slide 24: Contribution of private land to conservation
    25. Slide 25: Old trends
    26. Slide 26 : Pressures on conventional conservation
    27. Slide 27: New trends I
    28. Slide 28: New trends II
    29. Slide 29: Current trends I
    30. Slide 30: Contribution of private land to conservation in South Africa
    31. Slide 31 : Current trends II
    32. Slide 32 : Adaptation responses
    33. Slide 33: Persists or expands
    34. Slide 34: Autonomous adaptation / migration
    35. Slide 35: Facilitated migration
    36. Slide 36: Preservation
    37. Slide 37: Conclusion I
    38. Slide 38: Conclusion II
    39. Slide 39: Test yourself
    40. Slide 40:Links to other chapters
  6. Chapter 6: Approaches to niche-based modelling
    1. Slide 1: Approaches to niche-based modelling - theory and practice
    2. Slide 2: Lecture Structure
    3. Slide 3: Why model species ranges?
    4. Slide 4: Used in response to
    5. Slide 5: Distribution models have been used to predict
    6. Slide 6: They have also been used to...
    7. Slide 7: Principles: Fundamental niche
    8. Slide 8: Principles: Realised niche
    9. Slide 9: Principles: Range edges
    10. Slide 10: Principles: Response curves
    11. Slide 11: Response curves estimation of different models
    12. Slide 12: Specifics: Niche-based modelling
    13. Slide 13: Niche-based modelling - assumptions
    14. Slide 14: Cautionary note on modelling in general
    15. Slide 15: Specifics: variable selection
    16. Slide 16: Example of how direct/indirect variables may affect a plant species
    17. Slide 17: Variables and their selection
    18. Slide 18: Variables determine specificity of model
    19. Slide 19: Environmental Variables
    20. Slide 20: Derived Variables
    21. Slide 21: Recommendations for variable selection
    22. Slide 22: Species distribution datasets
    23. Slide 23: Species distribution datasets...2
    24. Slide 24: Species distribution datasets...3
    25. Slide 25: How do we choose a model type?
    26. Slide 26: Different types of models
    27. Slide 27: Principles
    28. Slide 28: Various decision trees from the literature
    29. Slide 29: Decision trees from the literature (2)
    30. Slide 30: In conclusion
    31. Slide 31: Model calibration and evaluation
    32. Slide 32: Models and their selection - BioClimatic Envelope
    33. Slide 33: Models and their selection - GAM modeling
    34. Slide 34: Models and their selection - GARP
    35. Slide 35: How good are the predictions?
    36. Slide 36: Kappa statistic
    37. Slide 37: Receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC)
    38. Slide 38: How good are the predictions?
    39. Slide 39: Test yourself
    40. Slide 40 Links to other chapters
  7. Chapter 7: Ecosystem function modelling
    1. Slide 1: Ecosystem function modelling
    2. Slide 2: Aspects and levels of biodiversity
    3. Slide 3 : Dynamic Vegetation Models
    4. Slide 4: DGVMs continued...
    5. Slide 5: A 'reduced form' ecosystem model for savannas under climate change
    6. Slide 6: Basic savanna system model
    7. Slide 7: Water balance modelling
    8. Slide 8: Controls on grass growth at the annual timescale
    9. Slide 9: Linear relation between grass production and rainfall
    10. Slide 10: Slope: Rain Use Efficiency (g/m2/mm)
    11. Slide 11: Intercept: dependent on soil water holding capacity; co-varies with the rain use efficiency
    12. Slide 12: Effect of trees on grass
    13. Slide 13: Maximum tree basal area
    14. Slide 14: What controls the growth rate of trees?
    15. Slide 15: Effect of CO2 on NEP
    16. Slide 16: Effects of temperature on NEP
    17. Slide 17: What controls tree mortality?
    18. Slide 18: Mammal dynamics
    19. Slide 19: Keeping it together!
    20. Slide 20: Test 1: trees, grass and fire
    21. Slide 21: Test 2: + herbivores, carnivores
    22. Slide 22: Test 3: + elephants
    23. Slide 23: The experiment design
    24. Slide 24: Change in production drivers
    25. Slide 25: Change in vegetation structure
    26. Slide 26: Change in herbivores
    27. Slide 27: Preliminary conclusions
    28. Slide 28: Test yourself
    29. Slide 29: Links to other chapters
  8. Chapter 8: Climate change implications for conservation planning
    1. Slide 1: Climate change implications
    2. Slide 2:Conservation planning
    3. Slide 3:The process of conservation planning
    4. Slide 4: Conservation planning
    5. Slide 5 : Climate change
    6. Slide 6: Climate change affects future species distributions
    7. Slide 7: Future conservation planning
    8. Slide 8: Needs
    9. Slide 9: Currently
    10. Slide 10: Framework for climate change-integrated conservation strategies (CCS)
    11. Slide 11: TIER 1 CCS 1 - Areas of stability/resilience
    12. Slide 12: Projected future change in biomes
    13. Slide 13: CCS 1 - Areas of stability/resilience
    14. Slide 14: TIER 2 CCS 2 - Areas of current & future conservation value
    15. Slide 15: Conservation value
    16. Slide 16: Conservation value
    17. Slide 17: CCS 2 - Areas of conservation value
    18. Slide 18: CCS 3 - Species dispersal
    19. Slide 19: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    20. Slide 20: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    21. Slide 21: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    22. Slide 22: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    23. Slide 23: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    24. Slide 24: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
    25. Slide 25: CCS 3 - Species dispersal
    26. Slide 26: Test yourself
    27. Slide 27: Links to other chapters
  9. Chapter 9: The economic costs of conservation response options for climate change
    1. Slide 1: The economic costs of conservation response options to climate change: the case of the Cape Floristic Region
    2. Slide 2: Outline
    3. Slide 3: Aim & objectives
    4. Slide 4: Response options to climate change
    5. Slide 5: Total cost (TC) versus total economic value (TEV)
    6. Slide 6: The components of total economic value
    7. Slide 7: Determinants of cost of PAN
    8. Slide 8: Study Area
    9. Slide 9: Habitat classes and associated management requirements
    10. Slide 10: Methods
    11. Slide 11: Types of cost
    12. Slide 12: Once-off costs of acquiring different habitat types
    13. Slide 13: Operating cost per various park sizes
    14. Slide 14: Capital requirement per park size
    15. Slide 15: Cost of gene/ seed banking
    16. Slide 16: Providing incentives to private landowners
    17. Slide 17: Types of incentives
    18. Slide 18: Land required in extended PAN
    19. Slide 19: Total costs of expanding protected area network
    20. Slide 20: Benefits associated with different adaptation options
    21. Slide 21: Test yourself
    22. Slide 22: Links to other chapters
  10. Course Resources
    1. Course Documents
    2. Course Downloads
  11. Practical: Conservation for Climate Change
    1. Slide 1: Pre-practical - Conservation for Climate Change
    2. Slide 2: Data specifications
    3. Slide 3: Software specifications
    4. Slide 4: 0verview:
    5. Slide 5: Isolating data for a single country
    6. Slide 6: Running The GAM
    7. Slide 7: Model evaluation
    8. Slide 8: Future climate-influenced distribution
    9. Slide 9: Web upload
    10. Slide 10: Good luck!
  12. Tests to Assess your Understanding
    1. Setting up you Email Account to use Microsoft Outlook using Internet Explorer
    2. Setting up you Email Account to use Microsoft Outlook using Opera Browser
    3. Links to each Test
  13. How to run a GAM model in R
    1. 1: Data Preparation
    2. 2: Modelling Current Distributions
    3. 3. Modelling Distributions after Climate Change